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Delinquency rates up
Delinquency rates up
According a report from California-based real estate market consulting firm Foresight Analytics, total delinquencies for first-lien residential mortgages grew to an estimated 11% during Q309. The final figures for the third quarter are not due until the end of November, but Foresight?s report bases its data on earnings reports and call report filings from banks. Residential delinquencies increased from 10.2% in Q209 and from 6.4% from the second quarter of 2008, according to the report. The delinquency rate rose approximately 1% every quarter since the Q108, except for a quick blip in Q408. ?We have been expecting the rate of increase to slow, but clearly this has not yet occurred,? said the report.
Nonaccrual rates for residential mortgages also jumped to 4.7% in Q309 from 3.8% in the previous quarter, and delinquencies in commercial mortgages also ballooned for the quarter. The rate hiked to 4.7% in Q309 from 4.1% in the previous quarter and more than doubled the 2.1% rate a year ago, according to the report. ?The delinquency rate has been increasing at an accelerated rate since Lehman Brothers? collapse in September 2008 and the ensuing severe credit crunch and economic downturn.? The delinquency rate in commercial loans is still well below the 8% delinquency rate in the third quarter of 1991, but the rate still worries analysts in light of a weak economy, constricted credit availability and a large number of commercial mortgages coming due the next few years.
Interest rates up
Freddie Mac?s weekly survey said the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) interest rate inched up last week to 5.03% for the week ending Oct. 29, up from 5% in the previous week. A yevar ago, the rate was 6.46%. A separate survey of large US banks and thrifts conducted by Bankrate.com put the 30-year FRM at 5.35% with an average 0.37 point. That?s an increase of 1 basis point from the previous week. One year ago, their estimated rate was 6.77%. Freddie Mac said the 15-year FRM rate was 4.46% with an average 0.6 point, up from 4.43% last week, and Bankrate.com said the 15-year FRM was 4.74%, up 2bps from last week. Anyway, to make a number filled story short, interest rates are up. Bankrate.com goes further and says that sales have increased, prices are down and supply is starting to decline. Susan Wachter, a real estate professor at the University of Pennsylvania?s Wharton School of Business, said in the Bankrate.com survey that the housing market is not at a false bott
om. ?These are strong numbers, but not surprisingly strong numbers,? Wachter said. ?The fundamentals are in place for a recovery ? however, a slow recovery.?
White House claims jobs saved and created
According to a report released by the Obama administration, its stimulus program has created or saved 650,000 state and local jobs. Maybe this time things will be different, but last time the White House released a job creation report it turned out so full of overstatement and errors that among other things, it reported an award to a French vaccine maker as 100 times the actual amount. The numbers in this report, like last report, are drawn from tens of thousands of self- reportings from state and local recipients as well as private companies. The White House claims to have created or saved at least 650,000 state and local jobs, but says the actual number of jobs created so far is likely closer to 1 million, since its report on stimulus job creation only focused on $150 billion of the $339 billion in American Recovery and Reinvestment Act funds spent so far. "We're solidly on track to create or save 3.5 million jobs by the time this program winds down," administration eco
nomist Jared Bernstein told CNN on Friday. "There's a lot more ammunition in that Recovery Act. The stimulus package is absolutely working, both in GDP terms and in terms of saving or creating jobs." Yup. The White House maintains that the funding saved the country from slipping into a depression and fueled the 3.5% growth in the economy in the third quarter. Republicans point to the rising unemployment rate, now at a 26-year high of 9.8%, as a sign that the recovery act is a failure.
Consumer spending down
The Commerce Department says consumer spending plunged in September by the largest amount in nine months, and incomes, the fuel for future spending, were flat. Spending dropped 0.5 percent in September, and economists worry that the recovery could falter in coming months if households cut back on spending to cope with rising unemployment, heavy debt loads and tight credit conditions. Some economists believe that consumer spending will slow sharply in the current quarter, lowering GDP growth to perhaps 1.5 percent.
Analysts said the risk of a double-dip recession cannot be ruled out over the next year. The 0.5 percent drop in consumer spending in September followed a 1.4 percent surge in August which was propelled by the big jump in car sales that month as consumers rushed to take advantage of the clunkers' incentives. Last month's drop in spending resulted in a boost in the savings rate to 3.3 percent of after-tax incomes, up from 2.8 percent in August. Many analysts believe households will keep striving to increase savings in the months ahead, which would hold back spending in the months ahead, weakening the recovery.
31% of consumers say access to mortgages is harder
Financial services information provider Bank Administration Institute (BAI) measures consumer views across five areas: financial stress and the economy, access to credit, fees and disclosure, managing personal finances and consumer trust. The index?s findings indicate that one-third of consumers feel their financial situation has deteriorated in recent months, but few expect conditions to grow even worse.
Of those surveyed, 31% indicated that access to mortgages is worse now than six months ago, while only 5% said it improved. The projections indicate that 12% of respondents expected access to improve in another six months, while 15% expect access to worsen. ?In today?s fast-changing scenario, consumer opinion counts more than ever before and technology has made the consumer highly empowered,? said Haragopal Mangipudi, global head at Finacle. ?Presented with diverse and ever-dynamic consumer segments, banks need to anticipate changing requirements and fine-tune business strategy.?
Robert Schantz ? Broker Associate of Keller Williams Realty San Diego Metro achieves designation of Pre-Foreclosure Specialist Certification (PSC)
Robert Schantz ? Broker Associate of Keller Williams Realty San Diego Metro achieves designation of Pre-Foreclosure Specialist Certification (PSC) from Partner First, a Nationwide Real Estate Network.
SAN DIEGO, CA October 20, 2009 ? Robert Schantz, Broker Associate for Keller Williams Realty San Diego Metro, recently achieved his certification as a Pre-Foreclosure Specialist from PartnerFirst, www.partnerfirst.org. Keller Williams Realty San Diego Metro Market Center is located at 3965 5th Avenue, Suite 300 in the Hillcrest Village Colonnade.
Robert has an extensive background in the sales and marketing of San Diego Metro Residential Properties and has been in the real estate industry for over 8 years. Robert has consistently achieved Top Agent status and always ranks in the Top Tier of Agents in the Market Center.
?With the large number of homeowner?s in distress in the current real estate climate, I found it was necessary to get this designation so that I may effectively guide homeowners through this process. I also found that banks have a strong need to work with agents who can navigate the short sale process for their portfolio so that they mitigate the necessity for foreclosing on the homeowner.?
The Mission Statement for PartnerFirst is to be the industry leader in providing solution-based relationships and strategies to its members and clients. Through education, they have established a national network of top-notch short sale agents with the "Pre-Foreclosure Specialist Certification" (PSC) designation. Their Agents connect homeowners with mortgage servicers by providing viable pre-foreclosure solutions to all parties involved. Members of their network hold a high standard of excellence, compassion, integrity, and commitment to bringing stability back to the housing market one pre-foreclosure solution at a time.
?I am truly lucky to be affiliated with PartnerFirst as well as Keller Williams Realty. Keller Williams Realty offers its associates unparalleled career growth and lifelong learning opportunities in the real estate industry.
?I chose PartnerFirst over other certification programs because of its reputation and network of PSC Agents Nationwide. I want to continue to grow my real estate business as well as help distressed homeowners, and PartnerFirst provides the training and technology that will help me reach my goals.?
The Keller Williams San Diego Metro Market Center, recently relocated to its new 9,000 square foot state of the art facility at 3965 5th Avenue, San Diego, CA 92103, was established in 1998 and has 165 associates. In this challenging real estate market, Keller Williams San Diego Metro has consistently sold and listed over 300 more properties in 2008 over 2007.
To learn more about Keller Williams Realty, call Ashley Lunn at 619.233.5935 or visit www.sandiegometro.yourkwoffice.com.
It's all about Glee. I can't get enough of it. http://ping.fm/C9B1i
Save The Sarah Connor Chroniciles. savesarah
RT @CourageCampaign Duvall screwed CA. Now we must fix Sacramento. Sign our petition for real lobbying reform: http://bit.ly/4DvHmP
Day 8 of my P90X fitness challenge. Much better than last week. My blog says it all. http://ping.fm/uRecr
Enjoying my Sunday morning watching CBS Sunday Morning mark 30 years. Wow........great memories and clips from their previous broadcasts.
Seller Master begins September 8th, 2009 @ 2PM in the Keller Williams Realty Metro Training Room. Go to www.agentcareers.info for more info.
When "bad" things happen to "good" people, it's often because they want to become even better teachers, guides, and helpers to those precious souls who will one day need them to be their rock.
Plus, today's bad is always tomorrow's boon, no matter who you are, no matter what has happened, and no matter how weak the coffee was.
Beginner?s Mind
The Zen master says that in the expert?s mind there are few possibilities (because the expert thinks he knows everything) while in the beginner?s mind the possibilities are endless.
?Orville Wright did not have a pilot?s license.?
At Mega camp listening to Gary Kellers opening remarks
Day 1 at Mega Agent Camp/Masterminds in Austin. I'm so lucky to be with Keller Williams Realty. They Rock.
Home prices: There?s no quick recovery ahead
There has been some muted?albeit exhausted?cheering from homeowners in recent weeks. But before
we break out the champagne, look out for further potential problems just down the road.
To read the full story, please click here
New law may cause delays for borrowers
New law may cause delays for borrowers
Changes to the Truth in Lending Act took effect last month, requiring lenders to provide certain disclosures
about mortgages fees and helping borrowers make better-informed loan choices. However, some in the
industry believe the new regulations could create further delays in the lending process.
Previously, lenders could begin underwriting the loan the same day they received an application by charging
fees to borrowers, such as paying for property appraisers. The new regulations now mandate a three-day
review period for the loan documents before the loan process can begin. If the interest rate changes before
the settlement date, a new set of disclosure documents must be given to the borrowers, restarting the review
period.
Funding the typical mortgage on a new purchase takes approximately 45 days?at least two weeks longer
than last year, according to some lenders. Delays in loan funding also can be costly to borrowers, as time
on mortgage rate locks may run out.
Borrowers can lock in interest rates for as long as 60 days, and may extend the rate lock for up to three
weeks?down from four weeks a year ago. The cost of each further one-week rate-lock extension costs
one-quarter of a percentage point of the total loan amount.
Borrowers whose settlement dates are in jeopardy may apply for an emergency waiver of the three-day
waiting period, but it is not likely to be granted, according to one lender who issues loans in 20 states.
To read the full story, please click here
Start house-hunting now to qualify for tax credit for first-time home buyers
Start house-hunting now to qualify for tax credit for first-time home buyers
First-time homebuyers?those who have not owned a home for at least three years?may be eligible for the
$8,000 federal tax credit, but the window of opportunity is closing rapidly. To qualify for the credit, the buyer
must close escrow by midnight on Nov. 30, when the tax credit expires. Buyers hoping to take advantage of
this benefit are advised to start house-hunting early, as the buying and lending processes takes time.
KEEP THIS IN MIND
? Finding the right house can take some time, so REALTORS® recommend home buyers start
looking for a home as soon as they are able and ready to purchase. Buyers also should build in
extra time to accommodate the lending process, which is taking approximately two weeks longer to
process this year compared with last year.
? The tax credit is equal to 10 percent of the purchase price, up to $8,000, subject to income limits.
Single taxpayers are eligible if their modified adjusted gross income is $75,000 or less, while
married taxpayers filing jointly must have a modified adjusted gross income of $150,000 or less.
? Only primary residences are eligible for the federal tax credit, including new or existing single-family
homes, townhouses, condominiums, manufactured homes, custom homes, and houseboats.
Vacation homes and investment properties do not qualify.
? Purchases must be arm?s-length transactions, meaning the seller cannot be the buyer?s parent,
grandparent, child, grandchild or spouse.
? Married people filing as such cannot claim the credit if either spouse has owned a primary
residence within the last three years. However, unmarried joint purchasers may allocate the credit
in any way they see fit, as long as it does not exceed the $8,000 maximum.
? The government will allow those who finance their purchases with a federally insured loan to apply
their anticipated credit immediately toward closing costs or as additional down payment, rather than
waiting until they file their 2009 taxes to receive the refund.
To read the full story, please click here
"Obstacles are those frightful things you see when you take your eyes off your goal." Henry Ford
"Energy flows where attention goes" Want good things to happen....think good thoughts.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank say that the number of homeowners whose home value is less than what they owe on mortgage loans will double to 48% by 2011; currently 26% of homeowners have negative home equity.
Arya M sez: Plan for the Future, Live in the Present and Learn from the Past.
Don't let the past dictate your future, but let it be a part of who you will become.
Planning the Sept Ed Calendar and looking forward to going to Yreka to see the family. Can hardly wait.
When will the Gov't Learn that their intervention is only prolonging things???
Lenders prefer foreclosure to loan modification in certain cases
The government program for preventing foreclosures is not in the best interest of lenders in all cases. If a borrower is likely to default even after participating in mortgage modification program, the lender is better-off opting for foreclosure. Michael Fratantoni, vice president at the Mortgage Bankers Association, said: "There is going to be this narrow slice of borrowers for which modifications is the right answer." Fratantoni said it is tough to estimate the size of that slice and "the industry and policymakers have been grappling with that." According to a study conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, about a third of the borrowers who miss 2 payments can get back on track without help from their lender.
"These are the people who will get a second job, borrow from their family to keep up," said Paul Willen, a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. "From a cold-blooded profit-maximizing standpoint, these are the people the banks will help the least." Michael Barr, assistant Treasury secretary for financial institutions, while commenting on the mortgage modification program, said: "We will continue to refine the program as new data becomes available. We are committed to studying the effectiveness and efficiency of the program, and we welcome outside analysis."
Government mulls more housing sops for troubled homeowners
With foreclosures rising, the Obama administration officials are set to meet this week to discuss new initiatives to help homeowners. Rising unemployment is impacting the effectiveness of the administration's current foreclosure prevention program. "Unemployment is making the job of doing loan modifications more difficult," William Apgar, a Housing Department senior adviser, told a congressional committee last week. "We are exploring other options related to how to provide assistance to unemployed folks." According to RealtyTrac, over 1.5 million homes received at least one foreclosure filing in the first half of 2009.
Unemployment accounts for a large number of foreclosures. The loan modification program introduced by the administration has not been effective so far for a variety of reasons including operational problems. "Loan modifications will not reduce by any sizable amount the number of homes going into foreclosure," said Morris Davis, an assistant professor at the Wisconsin School of Business. Experts feel that a new foreclosure prevention program may not find favor with lawmakers given the low success rate of existing program. "Any measures taken to help people avoid foreclosure will only prolong the pain by using taxpayer money to prop up unsustainable mortgages," said Kurt Bardella, press secretary for California Rep. Darrell Issa. "The best thing we can do for the unemployed is adopt policies that will create jobs," Bardella said.
"We make a living by what we get, we make a life by what we give!"- W.C.
"Don't pray life gets easier... Pray that you get stronger! ~ J.R. ... And
then hit the mental emotional and phys gym and do something about it!!"
Check out my Tale of 3 Markets on my blog; www.coachingtipsforrealtors.com to see why the upper end is set to suffer.
California Real Estate Market Analysis
California real estate market is divided in to three catagories. Under $500k, the market is smoking hot....some areas less than 2 months of inventory. Between $500k-$1,000k, the market is so so and above a Million it is a snails pace. The reason????? It's The Financing Virgina. Their ain't no Santa Claus when it comes to financing. The current dichotomy exists within the conforming loan amount being increased from $417k to $729,750 in many counties including San Diego. The interest rates are higher too which makes qualifying more difficult for these loans. The qualifing is even more strict for jumbo loans, loans above the $729k. Since Fannie and Freddi only buy conforming loans; therfore, less money is available for jumbo loans. It isn't clear why conforming loans pay higher rates and have tougher guidelines to qualify than the loans for less than $417k. Historically, all conforming loans had the same interest rates and qualifying guidelines. Unless Fannie and Freddie start treating all conforming loans equally, and the governement intervenes on the ol' jumbo's, as it has on conforming loans, we will continue to experience this nasty tale of 3 markets and soon the upper-end market will likely see prices depreciate even more before this market strenghtens. Anyone want to buy a home on the cheap in Mission Hills??? Let's wait and see.
